The comments to my original article, both positive and negative, got me thinking about the impediments that face a 4G deployment in Thailand.  The one that is probably the easiest to address is the availability of nationwide Metro Ethernet.  Read on as I explore this critical requirement of 4G mobile networks.

So I sought the websites of Thai ISPs and backbone providers and descriptions of their Ethernet offerings.  Below is a partial listing.  I start with service providers who own their own network, rather than resellers, although the initially-deployed backhaul network is likely to be a heterogeneous patchwork of nationwide and regional providers using multiple technologies.   If I were trying to build backhaul network using Ethernet, I’d need first to see a map of a Provider’s backbone, and the major and minor access nodes distributed throughout the country.

Communication Authority of Thailand (CAT).   I speculate that CAT own their own fiber network, rather than leasing fiber from another provider, though that is not clear from their website.  The website also offers no online contact information, at least not in English.  They provide only a qualitative description of the product, no map and no pricing.

Telecommunications Organization of Thailand (TOT).  For a “Metro LAN” product, the description states that it is a “metropolis service”, which probably means it is offered in the larger cities only.  Like CAT’s website, one must call for more information, as there is no online link to submit questions.

Symphony Communications.  Symphony has a rather good site, with several interesting Ethernet products well-described.  They offer Ready Ethernet, for fully diverse network routing, and Ethernet over SDH (EoSDH) which looks a fine high-bandwidth backbone product.  The site also shows 28 Bangkok high-rise office towers they say are on-network.  Symphony seems also to have partnered with many other network providers and and ISPs to offer a more widespread solution.  Links to websites of the partners are conveniently provided.

True Move.   True is a large Thai telecoms and this page shows that they offer a wide selection of services, including Metro Ethernet and MPLS.  Hoever, the English-language descriptions are not sufficient to provide keen insight into their offerings.  The Thai language pages also appear to offer qualitative information rather than bandwidth, coverage and pricing.

TT&T might own their own network.  But their website is Thai only.

That seems to be the only providers owning their own fiber.  I’d speculate that the following ISPs probably resell capacity on the one of the above service provider networks, though it’s possible they own some or much of their own fiber.

Internet KSC.  KSC do offer Metro Ethernet, without details of speed, location and price.  They helpfully have an online contact form for sales-related questions.

Pacnet Thailand.   Pacnet have one of the nicer websites, and one of the only ones with an online link for more info (the others require a telephone call.)  They seem to be primarily a reseller.

Loxinfo.  Loxinfo does not appear to offer Ethernet services.  However they do offer hosting and leased-lines.  They also provide a handy map of their off-network connections.  Not essential, as contractual Service Level Agreements will capture the required information, though helpful nonetheless.

That seems to be the extent of Metro Ethernet service providers in Thailand.  I have concentrated on the English websites, and if the Thai versions offer more comprehensive information I will have missed that.  When new backhaul networks are to be built, they will opportunistically use a variety of service providers to carry the traffic.  We’ll say more about the building of backhaul networks later.

For now, it seems safe to conclude, from the survey just conducted, that much work needs to be done to allow a 4G network to launch.  Metro Ethernet coverage outside of the major cities seems non-existent, and will need to be built either to cost-effectively, for the mobile operators, support 3G or to allow a 4G network to be built at all.

In the commentary Sambandaraksa acknowledges that the 800 MHz spectrum currently used by CAT in service of their  3G CDMA network could also be used for 4G.  He goes on to point out that DTAC also has an option to deploy LTE if they are granted a license concession n 1800 MHz.  This clearly establishes that spectrum is not an impediment to deploying a 4G network.  Thanks for your support, Don.  But I beat you to it.  Just kidding.

Certainly other concern exists, such as nationwide availability of Metro Ethernet for Base Station backhaul and reliable Internet access.  I’ll be writing more on those topics soon.

To accentuate the positive, let’s applaud this quick recovery from the postponed 3G auctions.  At least 3G service can be expect to become available over the next 12 months or so, depending upon the pace of the build-out.  With no private (AIS, DTAC and True Move) 3G networks being built, sufficient resources should be available to complete the TOT build-out quickly.  Equipment vendors will be focused on TOT alone rather than on several distinct opportunities.

Engineers, technicians and construction teams will also be focused.  In short, a better, more widely available 3G network is now conceivable.  That has been a fading hope since the Supreme Administrative Court postponed the NTC auction last week.  Thai Telecoms welcomes this as a better outcome for Thailand.

On the down side, however, TOT retains a role for itself in 3G.  They likely will extend their current role as concessionaire far into the future.  Their track record of service quality and cost-effectiveness is not wonderful.  Was it not bad wenoughtthat they had veto power over base station backhaul and inter-connect?

Worse, power is again and further concentrated in the hands of a small number of folks.  That’s liable to lead to delays and cost inefficiencies.  The 3G auctions and the constitution that enabled them, were intended to distribute that power to provide better service at more affordable rates.  More’s the pity for Thailand.

This additional time must be viewed in the context that the first 3G networks deployed around 10 years ago and 3G has been the global standard for at least 6 or 7 years already. Launching a 3G network now, in 2010, would be a stunningly booring accomplishment that would hardly be noticed by the rest of the world. Such an announcement is likely to be lost among a sea of 4G launches and services. Thailand risks becoming the joke of the world’s media for being so late to the 3G party.

On the other hand, state-of-the-art 4G networks already have launched in Sweden by Telia Sonera. In America, Metro PCS announced the launch of their first 4G LTE network on September 21, 2010 in Las Vegas. Verizon Wireless, the largest mobile operator in America plans to launch 4G within 3 months, before the end of 2010. In the time it takes for Thailand to finally release their 3G spectrum dozens of new 4G networks might already be in service worldwide. Without question 4G is here now and ready now.

Even if Thailand can solve the legal and regulatory issues with the current spectrum plans in less than 2 years it will still require at least 9 months to launch a 4G network with the barest minimum of coverage. A nation-wide deployment will take years to achieve. By that time, many more of the world’s mobile operators will have launched 4G networks and significant numbers of subscribers will be using 4G services. Handsets and terminals will be readily available and applications and services will have been optimized for the higher bandwidths 4G provides.

By skipping 3G completely Thailand can strongly position themselves for growth in a changing world. The billions of Thai Baht 3G will require might just as well be spent on current technology rather than wasted on yesterday’s. Rather than being a laughingstock and a laggard, Thailand can leapfrog to the cutting edge of wireless services and the new industries and business opportunities 4G will enable.

This can be achieve with a single sentence. In whatever form the final allocation of Thai spectrum takes, free the winners of that spectrum to deploy whatever technology makes sense for them. Do not constrain spectrum winners to deploy 3G networks. The operators, Thai and foreign, would then make the best business decision, rather than follow a mandate that was originally relevant years ago when the 3G auctions first were planned. An even stronger mandate to deploy 4G might result in a more efficient allocation of capital, although government mandates often come with inherent risks.

Thailand can turn the current crisis into a creative opportunity by seizing this moment. Thailand can own-goal their way to a last-place finish by mandating 3G. Or Thailand can join the rest of the world with the current best practice of 4G. Let us move with dispatch to the world’s leading edge of mobile technology by using the new spectrum to build 4G networks in Thailand.

You might recall that CAT last week filed an injunction with the Supreme Administrative Court to prevent the NTC from auctioning 3G spectrum to incumbent mobile operators AIS, DTAC and True Move.  The Court granted that injunction on the basis of CAT’s claim that the 2007 constitution granted authority to allocate spectrum to a new, yet-to-be-created regulator called the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC).

In the article NTC deputy secretary Prasert Apipunya said the NTC has been granting spectrum licenses legitimately under the 2007 constitution.  Licensees include CAT, the Telecommunications Organization of Thailand (TOT), Aeronautical Radio of Thailand, and many other agencies and ministries of the State.

I’m sure you’re asking yourself what is going on?  Folks, let’s put this into context.  A concession for nationwide  3G service is a license to print money, and a mobile phone is just a portable slot machine.  The players in the seamy saga are pushing and shoving to make room at the trough so they can gorge themselves yet again at the expense of the Thai People.  The normal back-room deals that buy off everyone with any veto power have apparently not pleased everyone or has left the public insufficiently fleeced.  For these 3G networks to ever be built the profits must be divyed up now before it ever has been made.

Expect lots more of this to-ing and fro-ing before the spectrum is awarded.  The incumbent mobile operators will start cutting deals with CAT and TOT to allow them participate in 3G service.  the remit of TOT and CAT to offer 3G service might also be extended or expanded by the government.  If there is to be any good news it could be that the mobile operators will be given freedom to offer more services or allowed to partner with foreign companies in the construction and operation of these networks as a way to recoup some of the money that will now go to buy off the fat cats.  Back to Business As Usual in the Land of Smiles.

At issue is whether the current NTC has the right to auction the spectrum at all, or whether the legislature derogated that right to the National Broadcast and Telecoms Board, a body that has neither been established by legislation nor staffed with appointments.  Those steps are likely to require at least 6 months whilst players continue to jokey for influence and advantage.

Thai and foreign investors acknowledged this added uncertainty by trashing shares of Thai mobile operators on the Bangkok Stock Exchange.  Advanced Info Service (AIS) fell 9.8% to THB 89.50.  DTAC was was off more than 18% to THB 39.  True Move fell 25% to THB 5.30.

Regardless of the Court’s decision Monday, a 6-month delay seems unlikely.  There is simply too much money at stake.  The vested interests will push to achieve a traditional Thai-style compromise, one which allows the auction to proceed.  Expect CAT to reclaim the right to offer 3G service, or to win some other desired concession from the government.  This was probably the true intent of CAT when they filed the injunction, just negotiation by other means.

This is yet more maneuvering by the connected and the powerful to get a finger into this much expanding wireless pie.  After seemingly endless delays the auctions are imminent and still the players continue using every possible means to gain advantage.  And why not?  Wireless spectrum has often been called a license to print money.  And these are the headlines us mortals are allowed to read; the limited visibility we’re granted to the machinations of the rich and powerful.  One can only imagine the behind-the-scenes antics, negotiations and double dealing.

Will Thailand get 3G before the rest of the world embarks on 4G?  The question is yet to be answered.

I’ve not read of this phenomenon elsewhere, though I won’t be surprised if someone else has already identified it.  Until prior art is revealed, I’ll call it Lundberg’s Law of LinkedIn Laziness.  With Luck it might enter the vernacular.

Succinctly put, Lundberg’s Law states that a step function in the intensity of professional networking activity indicates an unplanned career move is afoot.

Math whizzes in the audience might prefer “the second derivative with respect to time of one’s professional network is proportional to the unexpectedness of a sudden career change.”

What it means is this: don’t lazily ignore your network and wait until you need it to feed it.  Connecting with colleagues, coworkers and acquaintances should be part of your daily routine. Chat up old colleagues, reconnect with past associates, check in occasionally with industry groups.  Stay active.  Stay visible.  Stay relevant.

If you are continually active, you’ll have a much healthier network at at time when that will be important to you, and you’ll avoid implicitly advertising that you’ve had a sudden career change thrust upon you.

If you ignore your professional network, it won’t serve you well when you most need it.

The article overlooks the fact that 3G networks already have been built by several of the existing wireless operators, including government-controlled CAT and TOT.

If history is any guide simply selecting a chairman will take months while the various factions embedded in the 7 member board vie for power and dominance.  A sitting member of the Commission, Khun Prasit, is quoted saying, without a trace of irony, that “Radio frequencies are national property and if they are not being used no benefits or developments would be produced”.

Political maneuvering and dithering has denied the Thai public access to this valuable resource for close to 10 years.  A sense of urgency demonstrated by the Commission would be most welcome.

With devices such as this MiFi hotspot, multiple users can simultaneously share a single Ev-DO subscription. Although the overall throughput of the connection does not change, the link is much more likely to be used continuously throughout the day and will spend much more time operating near capacity. These devices can therefore increase average per-account utilization by 5-10 times.

The impact on the RF environment is the same as a single account. But on the wireless backhaul, the connection from the BTS to the MSC, this can seriously degrade the user experience. If leased lines (E1/T1) are used for backhaul the BTS can even force users into 1xRTT mode, completely denying them access to Ev-DO speeds.

In the MSC back office, once data from all sites gets aggregated, it does not require many of these devices operating at once before Fast Ethernet and even Gigabit Ethernet links begin blocking.  The PDSN easily can become overwhelmed, especially if it is implementing a variety of complex policies or Access Control Lists.

CAT will have to vigilantly enforce usage-based fees and impose bandwidth caps if unpaid usage were to take off.